Multiple Control Point Battle - Should You Concede a Point?

 Yes?  No?

The answer isn't clear, but I can speak to some things to consider.  


Northern Region War Camp - Three Flags

I'll begin with an example.  The scenario was a broken field unlimited resurrection battle with three flags to control at random time checks, with approximately 21 fighters per side.

The green team's plan (the team I was on) was to begin by sending 7 fighters to take each flag and that we should be, "flexible with our plan as we learn more about the fight."

The red team's plan (based off of my best guess) was to concede the banner on the left (their right), keep the green fighters who are fighting over that flag occupied with a minimal force, and then to focus the remaining fighters on the other two flags.  The basic strategy is to lose one flag, but then control the other two with greater numbers.

Assuming equal prowess on both teams, this will work provided that the opposing team doesn't adjust appropriately.  In the following example, green sends 7 fighters to fight over each flag, while red sends 3 fighters to defend the left flag and 10 each on the other two flags.

Here red gives up one of the three points to green (positions exaggerated a bit to illustrate who has which flag) in hopes of holding the other two points by maintaining a 9 to 7 fighter advantage on those flags.  This has a good chance of working provided that green does not adjust.

What if red occupies one of the flags with a single fighter?  Will this now give them a 10 to 7 advantage on the other two flags, almost guaranteeing that they will score 2 of the 3 points?

An easy win for red provided that green doesn't adjust, which is entirely possible that they won't.  The problem with the single red fighter on the left flag is that the tactic becomes pretty obvious, and it won't take long for the bored green fighters to look around and find something else to do.  In this case, they'll either redistribute their numbers to make a competitive fight on the other two flags, or they'll just shift onto the flank of the middle flag.

Redistributed Numbers

Shifting on to the flank:  Green moves 5 fighters from the left flag
to the flank of the center flag

In the first case, green makes a fair play for both the center and right flags, while in the second case, green makes a strong play for the center flag while making a weak play for the right flag.

Keep in mind, in either case, green already has one point.  Red is just giving it to them.  So in order to win, green only needs to control one of the other two flags while red needs to control them both.

Let's consider the "redistribution" tactic, once again.  

Assuming all else is equal, the left flag goes to green, while the other two flags have a 50% chance (roughly) of going to either green or red.  Given random time checks, this gives green a 75% chance of controlling at least two flags during any time check, while red has a 25% chance*.  This gives green a clear advantage.

*Odds explained:  imagine the center and right flags have coin flips, red on one side, green on the other.  The left flag will always go green because red is just conceding the point.  So there are four possible scenarios, each with an equal chance of occurring.  GGG, GRG, GGR, & GRR.  Only in the 4th case does red control two flags.  

How Did it Go at War Camp?

One of the keys for green is making absolutely sure that they don't lose the flag that the other team is just giving them.  So it is easier to control that flag and concentrate more numbers to the middle flag than it is to do a large scale redistribution across the field. 

Effectively green kept enough people to keep the left flag, with the rest floating toward the middle flag.  Occasionally red would move some fighters toward the left flag to make a play for it, and when that happened, green's floaters would shift back to defend.  One of the key people in all of this was a veteran spear (Sir Gowain) who floated between the two flags.  He was important because with a 9 foot spear, he could easily attack people on both flags without much movement.

 So here it looks like green has the left flag, a small advantage on the center flag, and a little bit larger disadvantage on the right flag.  Again, I want to reiterate, while the center flag is not guaranteed to be controlled by green, they get the left flag for FREE.  

Ultimately green controlled the battle that day.


So What is Always the Right Play?

I keep reiterating that in this scenario, green gets a free point.  That isn't to say that that is a bad tactic for red.  In some cases, it may be the best tactic.  I only want to drive that point home so that people are aware that if they concede a point, that they are taking a risk.  It is much like a blitz in football, or a half court trap in basketball.  Both are great plays when utilized correctly, but there's always a risk involved.

So there is no answer for what is always the right play, only that the risks and rewards must be understood when drawing up the plan, and that people need to read the battle as it progresses and make adjustments.


Remaining Flexible

Duke Edward was the captain of our team and said, "Lets start with the right 7 going right, the middle 7 going center, and the left 7 going left.  This is only our starting strategy.  As we learn more about the battle, we'll adjust."  I was on the planning team for the Town Battle at Pennsic (also a control the flags battle) and I made a similar comment.  "So we've agreed on the strategy, but let's remember to allow ourselves room to adjust as we learn about the battle in the first 20 minutes," which was an obvious statement to make and that everyone seemed to already understand and agree with.

And to be fair, the red team did make several adjustments throughout the fight at the war camp.

Hope you enjoyed reading!

-Sir Bari of Anglesey - East Kingdom